Friday, December 12, 2008

Uptrending Nifty bounces off the supports of 2810-2830.,resistances ahead...

A trading strategy that has worked mostly....
When in uptrend,if the world mkts are down, you get a buying opportunity..
When in downtrend,if the world mkts are up, you get a selling opportunity..

And today the bulls had that buying op.at 2810-2830 levels.

Market is stretched for the shortterm. No trend reversal indications are visible.
Book profits into rallies and buy into weakness near support levels continue.

Weekly has given the buy signal very convincingly.That is another plus for bulls and for the traders as the mkt swing can get bigger on both sides.Keep trading.











Thursday, December 11, 2008

Nifty continues up with intra corrections..Watch the trendlines..

A profit booking day..Nifty bounces back after the corrections. Watch the trendline supports from 2570 rally. If breached, Nifty may trade in a sideways mode of 2750 to 2950..
Hourly is overbought. As long as hourly closes above 2910, trend continues below which weakens..to 2860/2830.
Daily trend is intact.Trend turning down on a close below 2840(5 ema) or 2790(12 ema).Above 2945, may attempt 2975/3050(50 DMA)
Weekly trend will turn up on a close above 2805 on Friday(Slow Macd & stochastics will turn up).








Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Nifty confirms the uptrend, profit booking at 2950 - 3050 area..

Nifty's uptrend continues with intra corrections.
There is a negative divergence in 5-minute chart(Note 5-Minute time cycle) which may prompt a profit booking(5 week high ema at 2965/2973) and the likely supports are 2870-2830 failing which 2810-2770.
In a rising market, Thursdays are associated with profit booking generally.
Daily trend is up; Weekly trend trying to turn up;Hourly very close to overbought and the 5 minute has negative divergences.
So book out and reenter at lower levels.And ofcourse watch the overseas action before forming an opinion.(The above based on price readings)








Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Quality time spent on a Holiday..Learning..Keep learning..!!!

IDD MUBARAK

Some interesting readings to guide us into the coming weeks:-
1.Monitoring CBOE volatality index: Short above 76.5 in the next few days or exit longs when it hits 55 around 22nd Dec and initiate shorts..(Monitor it on a daily basis)
2. I liked this small write up on traders obsession to predictions.
3.When you put so much trust and blind belief into another's judgement and not rely on your own study and observations, you create a GURU who is often fallible.Bottomline is be flexible and open to changes and receptive to different views.
4.I can never get tired of talking about divergences and how they make tons of money for you provided you are very patient during its development and act at just the right time.
5.And good news for shorters/Bears, the king of Bears comments must be comforting..In his own words - "Once this uptrend is complete before the vacation starts.....And the next time bomb is ticking in the Europe & U.K.
6.Here is one Profitable strategy on picking stocks as per their price behaviour v/s their positioning from their 50 day simple moving average(50 DSMA).
7.And if you still have still some more time left, why not brush up on those "ABC" of Technical Analysis from this Learning Centre.
8.Get a overview of the Experts on current market action.
9.What Elliot wave International has to say about the markets ahead(Posted on 5thDec.08)

Monday, December 8, 2008

Nifty resisted at 2860, falls after -ve div..to correct

BULL: If 2710-2690 holds and Nifty takes out 2860, higher levels may be seen.
OR..Nifty corrects from here or after a bounce to 2800-2820 and falls to
2640-2600 level and rally again.

Bear:
If Nifty closes below 2690, may fall further to 2640/2570 and more down as the last leg of the down move.

Preferred:
As per the price & technical indications..correction may hold 2700 levels and higher levels will be seen.
Strategy: Sell near 2800-2830 levels with SL 2860 and buy near 2700-2690 with Sl 2644.(Sell/Buy as per the opening levels)








Sunday, December 7, 2008

Look how the stocks are Overdone..!!

Making money in the market is buying low & selling high OR selling high & buying low in Bull & Bear markets irrespective of whether you understand the fundamentals or know what the Economy is doing.
Economic indicators lag more than a year and by then the prices would have plummeted.

I have just shown some stocks that are overdone in the Sellingside which may offer some compelling returns in the short term.

As the Nifty is trading in a range of 2600 -2830, a break above may attract serious short covering & some buying interest.Break below may witness some selling..

There are positive divergences all around and there were good volume backed buying in stocks last week and the fall from Fri high was a kind of corrective fall only.

Markets may not move up vertically like in a bull market. But they have started to rally good on every dips..So use those weaknesses(Patiently) to buy into some oversold, quality stocks for short term gains..

So many bad news., depressive indicators but markets are shrugging off all that which is a sign of bottoming (How long..we will come to that when we see a overbought readings..)

You want to be a bear...Fine, then short after a rally or when you see a overbought readings, etc..
You are a bull..then buy into falls and book out into rises till 2860 is broken on the upsides, then buy more and book out into overbought readings or euphoric rantings by the media..

Happy investing/ Trading and good hunting..

These are some sample charts picked randomly for patterns & price behaviour & +ve divergence display only. Do your own searching and take a call.I am not a stock picker..I tradeinniftyonly...