Nifty stuck in 2775 - 2975 range....break out may add / lose 200 points..

Today's Trade:-
"ORB-15 min" was "2888 - 2930" and 2888 was broken soon.
Inspite of very + ve cues, Nifty didn't even touch the 5 Dema(2945) & trading above was critical for Bulls. And that didn't happen.
The Critical "2860" got broken subsequently & two attempts to breach the same was met with Selling.
Finally 2780, the support level in the charts held.

For Monday's Trade:-

If there is an inverse H&S form in the intra chart developing, then the Nifty should not break 2790-2810 in the opening And break the 2865 mark by latest 11.00AM and that will give it some strength to go up to 2910-2920.

On the other hand, break of 2780 will lead to a fall up to 2745...2700...2670.

In all the three time cycles(Week, Day, Hour), Nifty is trending down. At around 2860, it is hesitating with a sideways move undecided to proceed decisively.
Bears have been successful in keeping it below 2860 and they will gain in strength below 2780.
Bulls can come back only on a hourly close above 2860 and staying above it and scale 2920, 2950, 2975 and a daily close above 2920 & so on...

A comparison of world markets..

From the charts below(All daily charts), it is quite clear that the weakest are the US markets.
If US & UK do not fall much and rally even a little, then the chances of Nifty holding 2700 & then clearing 2975, 3050, 3160 & above is possible in the coming days.
On the contrary, if there is another big fall breaking the "marked support levels" in US & Asian mkts, then down momentum will increase.

So based on tonights price action & tomorrow's Hang seng reaction, we should have our clues to act on them..Why hazard a guess? Let the market show the way forward...

Nifty set for heading down unless 2750 is held...

Will post comments Later...
Today's Trade:NSE gives previous day's close as opening. But the actual opening will be most often different and you may get it from NSE home page chart(Click on it & run the mouse over the chart, you get the correct data)
The "OBR-15 mins" was "2907 - 2855" & we had a buy signal above 2907 & the critical levels 2993 never came & got sold off at 2974 and we had the sell signal when the channel got broken at 2925 & then at 2905(Intra day support). Fall was severe on breaking 2855.
The swings during the day were quite violent & you need to figure it out with channels, critical intra supports, earlier days resistances & supports to act as day's supports & resistances.

For tomorrows trade, pick up the levels from the charts as well as from the tech table and let me know how it worked out for you.

Nifty's fall becomes severe below 2860 & to gain strength above 3050..

Today's Trade as per "SAR" & "ORB-15 mins":-
Op. range in the 1st 15 min was "3121 - 3091" and 3091 was breached at 10.20 AM initiating a Sell for the day though "SAR" was in sell mode from the start.

3050 being the channel bottom was breached subsequently(10.40 AM) and was challenged very briefly(11.10 AM).

3020 - 5 day ema was breached next(11.35 AM) and was challenged briefly upto 3032 and then the market kept falling faster thereafter.

Tomorrow's Trade:-On the lowerside , the critical supports are at 2880-2860 & then 2775.

5 day ema at 2993.

If tomorrow closes below 2920 (5 day Low ema), stay short.

I have a negative bias for tomorrow.
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With the bearish engulfing candle, closing below 5 day ema, it is clearly turned down. One more day's action will complete the picture. If it is able to stay above 2860 and rally up & close above 3000, bulls will have a chance.
On the otherhand, if 2860 is broken and only weak rally materialises, it becomes "Sell on rises".
If 2775 is broken decisively, more severe falls likely.

So Tomorrow is very CRITICAL for decisive action ahead.
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Nifty poised to clear 3240 to attempt 3350 & above..

3045 to 3065 which was the resistance for Monday's morning trade becomes support for the day. If this level is broken, the next supports come at 2950., 2860. On the higher side the resistances will be 3115 -3160 - 3240.

What the experts say for the coming week...

IN CONCLUSION:- After reading quite many experts(Some presented below), seeing certain technical indicators such as 9 & 14 day Rsi shooting up, certain stocks such as NTPC showing advance upmoves, I will go in today with a positive bias. And a move above 3050-3070 will confirm such a bullishness.

Kpl...in VFM Direct:

On daily charts, we have a 'roughish' island reversal formed this week.
Last 2 days trading looks like 'bearish side-by-side' pattern...
a bearish continuation pattern. Similar patterns formed on Reliance and SBI.
The above pattern remains valid even if mkts close near day's high.
Next week, look for bullishness above 3000 and continuation of correction below 2850. The answer shd be known in first 15 minutes of Monday!
Usual supports: 38%, 50% and 61.8% retracement.

— Lokeshwari S.K.(In Business Line)

This decline is akin to nothing that we have seen before and the rule-books of technical analysis would have to be rewritten once this down-trend is through. It is therefore best not to jump to premature conclusions and to let the market show us the way forward.

The 10-day rate of change oscillator is moving in to the positive zone and the 14-day relative strength index too has moved up from over-sold area and is placed at 43. The implication is that the short-term outlook is mildly positive. There are however no buy signals yet in the weekly oscillator charts. A spinning top candlestick pattern was formed in the weekly chart denoting indecision; that is, a move in either direction is possible next week.Our medium-term view too is ambivalent.

Nifty reversed from the peak at 3240 on Wednesday and closed the week with an 87 points gain. Our medium-term resistance level was tested very fleetingly and it remains the key level to watch out for. However, the fact that the index is holding above the 2860 in the recent pull-back is a positive for the short-term and if this level holds, Nifty can rally once more to 3240 or even 3471. Support below 2860 would be at 2628. The near-term view will turn overtly negative only on a penetration of this level.

Though the short-term view is positive, the medium-term view is neutral. The zone between 3175 and 3250 will try to thwart any up-move. However, if this level is surpassed, there can be a surge to 3470 or 3740.

Liquidity Trap

By Colin Twiggs
November 8, 5:00 a.m. ET (8:00 p.m. AET)


India: Sensex




The Sensex rallied before finding resistance at 11000. Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) below zero signals hesitancy. The primary trend is down and reversal below 8000 would offer a target of 6000, the 2005 low. Breakout above 11000 is less likely and would indicate a test of the upper trend channel.
The Slope of Hope by Tim Knight.

November 09, 2008 - 07:34 AM
Prior Bullish Setups

I continue to agonize over what's next. It occurred to me I could simply step aside altogether, but you'd soon find I'm a lot less interesting commentator on the markets if I'm not actually in them. In any case, I went back to the early 1930s to see how it behaved, and I saw many instances during that plunge where I'm sure it would have been easy to make a case for a big move upward:

The problem, though, is that if you look at the recent market (especially with a line graph), there is nothing - and I mean nothing -to equal the speed of the plunge we've seen. Not 2000-2002. Not 1987. Not 1973-1974. Not even the Great Depression. Nothing. I can simply find no other instance of anything like it.

So I keep leaning toward the idea that things are so ungodly stretched to the downside and a robust bear market rally is in the cards. It's still a real dilemma, since, taken individually, my short positions are very attractive. But very few shorts could do well in the face of a 200 point S&P rally, which I think may be in the cards.