IN CONCLUSION:- After reading quite many experts(Some presented below), seeing certain technical indicators such as 9 & 14 day Rsi shooting up, certain stocks such as NTPC showing advance upmoves, I will go in today with a positive bias. And a move above 3050-3070 will confirm such a bullishness.
Kpl...in VFM Direct:
On daily charts, we have a 'roughish' island reversal formed this week.
Last 2 days trading looks like 'bearish side-by-side' pattern...
a bearish continuation pattern. Similar patterns formed on Reliance and SBI.
The above pattern remains valid even if mkts close near day's high.
Next week, look for bullishness above 3000 and continuation of correction below 2850. The answer shd be known in first 15 minutes of Monday!
Usual supports: 38%, 50% and 61.8% retracement.
— Lokeshwari S.K.(In Business Line)
This decline is akin to nothing that we have seen before and the rule-books of technical analysis would have to be rewritten once this down-trend is through. It is therefore best not to jump to premature conclusions and to let the market show us the way forward.
The 10-day rate of change oscillator is moving in to the positive zone and the 14-day relative strength index too has moved up from over-sold area and is placed at 43. The implication is that the short-term outlook is mildly positive. There are however no buy signals yet in the weekly oscillator charts. A spinning top candlestick pattern was formed in the weekly chart denoting indecision; that is, a move in either direction is possible next week.Our medium-term view too is ambivalent.
Nifty reversed from the peak at 3240 on Wednesday and closed the week with an 87 points gain. Our medium-term resistance level was tested very fleetingly and it remains the key level to watch out for. However, the fact that the index is holding above the 2860 in the recent pull-back is a positive for the short-term and if this level holds, Nifty can rally once more to 3240 or even 3471. Support below 2860 would be at 2628. The near-term view will turn overtly negative only on a penetration of this level.
Though the short-term view is positive, the medium-term view is neutral. The zone between 3175 and 3250 will try to thwart any up-move. However, if this level is surpassed, there can be a surge to 3470 or 3740.
By Colin Twiggs
November 8, 5:00 a.m. ET (8:00 p.m. AET)
The Sensex rallied before finding resistance at 11000. Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) below zero signals hesitancy. The primary trend is down and reversal below 8000 would offer a target of 6000, the 2005 low. Breakout above 11000 is less likely and would indicate a test of the upper trend channel.
The Slope of Hope by Tim Knight.
November 09, 2008 - 07:34 AM
Prior Bullish Setups
I continue to agonize over what's next. It occurred to me I could simply step aside altogether, but you'd soon find I'm a lot less interesting commentator on the markets if I'm not actually in them. In any case, I went back to the early 1930s to see how it behaved, and I saw many instances during that plunge where I'm sure it would have been easy to make a case for a big move upward:
The problem, though, is that if you look at the recent market (especially with a line graph), there is nothing - and I mean nothing -to equal the speed of the plunge we've seen. Not 2000-2002. Not 1987. Not 1973-1974. Not even the Great Depression. Nothing. I can simply find no other instance of anything like it.
So I keep leaning toward the idea that things are so ungodly stretched to the downside and a robust bear market rally is in the cards. It's still a real dilemma, since, taken individually, my short positions are very attractive. But very few shorts could do well in the face of a 200 point S&P rally, which I think may be in the cards.