Nifty's likely range for Monday..

A small range has been established in the last two days - 2860 - 3010.

On a break out on either side, the likely resistances & supports are 3050-3070 & 2780 - 2750.

1) 5 DSMA is at 3000, 5 DEMA at 2955. So for long trades, these levels should hold.
2) If market weakens or reaches overbought while trading near 3050-3070, book longs.
3) And create shorts on the first sell signal (or likely to emerge).
4) If breaks 2860, hold shorts & book out near 2750-2780 area.
5) These are model guidelines & to be traded as per our first "15 minute ORB(Opening Range Breakout)" and SAR in intracharts.

Nifty holds on to 2860 & gains too, keeping the uptrend intact.

Now "2860" becomes 5 Day Low too & need to be protected by Bulls. Upside resistances are at 3050, 3075. Supports below 2860 are 2780, 2750.

For more on PARABOLIC SAR - read this section in Incredible chart site.

I have reproduced the Nifty intra chart of today with critical levels we had in mind & the possible trades based on the SAR & also the "15 minute range break out" that helped in the trade.
You need to use different strategies at different times and diff. styles suits for individuals.
You need to take in various views while trading which might help you in avoiding whipsaws like the one in today's at 1.30 PM. As market has consolidated for two days near 2860 & today it made a higher base at 2880, after a rise till 1.30PM, it corrected in a flag like fashion and then again broke out & went up.If you believed in the strength of the market at that time holding 2860-2880 & trying to climb 5 day ema(2946), you will look at that fall as a consolidation flag and wait out.

Even if you lose in those whipsaws, you still end up in profits.

Regarding the buy & sell signals:

I keep watching the red dots as they come down & forsee the next dot by their gaps and see the corresponding levels and close the shorts if the level is breached & initiate a long trade knowing well the green dot will appear once that certain level is breached. And vice versa for green dots.

For eg. At 11.45 AM the red dot was at 2910. I initiate a buy the moment 2910 is cleared, not waiting for the green dot to appear because the basis of SAR is "Stop And Reverse". So the green dot will come if Nifty crosses the previous red dot & vice versa.If you wait for a green dot, that particular candle can be so big, you will miss buying low.

You can minimise your trades by initiating only those which give a buy when stochastics is reversing from below 20 & rsi from below 20 - 30 mark.And a sell when stochastics is reversing down from above 80 & Rsi from above 70-80.

And for todays trading the key levels were 2860(Previous days low) & the 5 day ema (2946) and markets behaviour around these levels helped in making trade judgements.

I hope it clarifies some of your doubts. Go in with your own preparations based on informations collected from so many blogs, forums but filter it down to simple basic data & tradeable plans.

Do read "Nifty Predictor's" Blog for directions. He has been amazingly consistent.

Educative, Lucrative SAR (Stop And Reverse)

You will find at the top right corner of this blog a link to "Nifty Intraday Charting".

Everyday When you read the SAR with the stochastics & Rsi and trade as per the green(Buy) and Red (Sell) dots as they begin to appear, you can eliminate some whipsaws and take sizeable profits in each trade.

Alternatively when the trend is down, trade only the red dots and vice versa.

If you know in advance the likely targets, critical levels or a completion of a wave structure( Fives or ABC), you can then book out before the trend reverses.

Try this exercise diligently and see your profits growing. Trade with the trend. If you are trading a counter trend, trade small & with strict SL and for a very short duration.

And don't go around trumpeting your triumps but just keep to yourself and trade consistently and gratefully say a "thank you to your favourite GOD", thereby keeping your feet firmly on the ground and heads bowed down to receive the bounty consistently.

Below is today's intrachart with " 4 trades" of sizeable profits. Even if you had traded the one whipsaw, you still would have ended up mighty happy with your performance.



And also keep in mind our "15 minute trading range break out". If these methods don't work out some days, don't lose heart but keep at it.You will become more choosier as you gain experience. I learnt this 15 minute trading from Mr. Sudarshan Sukhani's blog(Trading steps).

Nifty holding out the last support 2840(10 DMA) but heavy selling at 3000 make for a dismal show..

2840 - 2860 is a very critical area (10DMA, 5 Wk low ema, 5 day Low ema).
2946 - 3045 is now a critical resistance zone(5 Day ema & 5 wk ema).

The ferocity of yesterdays fall & todays intra fall from 3006 suggests of a 5th wave down. On the other hand, if it holds 2750 - 2780 and rally up , clearing daily ema with volume, then a possibility of a rally.

Let us remember, the fall is not like a correction & the daily trend has turned down by closing below 5 DEMA (2948) today.

Read this article on Bear Markets..Very interesting & educative.

Nifty intra day trading-ORB

Todays first 15 minute range is 2921 to 2861. (Opening Range Breakout)

First trade should be on the breakout side..

On the upside 2965/2975/2990 resistance....(For higher levels see the earlier post)

On the downside 2780 likely to hold as supports..

At 10.27 AM, I am increasing the break down level to 2886.

At 10.29AM, it has broken the 2921 & a long trade initiated ..SL at 2886

At 10.51AM SL increased to 2910.

At 10.59AM increased the SL to 2920.

At 11.05AM increased the SL to 2930.

At 11.08AM..Stopped out..Now to wait for a new low & a +ve divergence in 5 minute chart..

Nifty sold off heavily at 3240, seeking lower levels..2920/ 2780/ ????

Nifty promptly used the world markets and sold off on the good news, weakening the daily momentum, generating an Hourly sell.

Resistances are at 3025/3050/3085 & 3100.

Supports are at 2920/ 2780/ ......

Only a close above 3100 will bring back the momentum. Holding 2920 - 2885 will bring in a bounce..Will that cross the 3100 or meets with resistance & fall again..World mkts should assist us..

Nifty's daily Parabolic SAR(Stop And Reverse) turns up

Nifty's daily Parabolic SAR has just turned up. SAR can be used as a trend following method.

The simple interpretaion is to buy into retracements whenever that happens till the Parabolic SAR turns down again.

I will watch out for 3265 - 3365 area for any resistance developing..

Today's first 15 minutes range is 3238 - 3152. Now let us see how this "15 minute trading range break out" pans out today.

Yesterday it worked so beautifully with a range in the morning's first 15 minutes of 3021 - 2986, and then it broke the 3021 at 10.40AM & never breached the 3121 but rallied by 130 points.

10.42 A.M:- Now , Nifty broke the 3152 decisively..Let us see how much this fall gives us.

11.05AM:- Nifty closed below the 5 hour ema & 5 hour high ema indicating weakness. Close below 5 hour low ema at 3100 will confirm the down momentum.

A small intra bounce may materialise now from 3060 area.

The Funny thing about Human Beings.

(From Paulo Coelho)

A man asked my friend Jaime Cohen: ' What is the human being's funniest characteristic?'

Cohen said: ' Our contradictoriness. We are in such a hurry to grow up, and then we long for our lost childhood. We make ourselves ill earning money, and then spend all our money on getting well again. We think so much about the future that we neglect the present, and thus experience neither the present nor the future. We live as if we were never going to die, and die as if we had never lived.'

It reminds me of the time we think about the future and take a position without giving due weightage to the present(trend) and end up holding a losing position....

Nifty into the resistance zone, after testing a intra bottom of 3020 thrice, marching towards 3250

Nifty entering the congestion zone of 3050-3250 with intra corrections..

If no surprises spring up in the next few weeks, a rally to 3800 levels looks possible.

The immediate resistance zone is 3100 - 3250, clearing which, it may attempt 3500 - 3640 levels. However, we will approach this one day at a time with current trend being up from 2253(800 points so far..).

The 5 minute chart shows series of negative divergences, so tread (trade)carefully in the coming two days. Resistance is clearly shown in the charts and we have just entered into it, hence expect selling pressures to emerge.

Below 2980, we have 2857 (5 week Low ema), 2727 (5 day low ema)..Remember, these emas keep changing as the day progresses with changing prices..

Nifty Intra Charting Link

I came across this automatically refreshing Nifty Intra charting with various information which are quite useful during intraday trading. I have put it permanently in the blog at the top as "Nifty Intraday charting".

Before you begin to use it, study the Nifty internals and go in with a plan and use this wonderful intra charting.

My plan was..Nifty already overbought will become highly overbought due to a gap up for the RBI actions and hence would give a sell and so I bought a PUT. and covered the same for a small profit. As the daily trend is up & the hourly has not given any firm sell, I bought a call around 2.00 PM and booked out of it by 3.10 PM. and the intra charts did help a lot.(Though I have my own intracharts..but constructing it continuously is quite tedious but this one is a fully baked cake with icing & all).

Nothing in the world can give you a foolproof system. But this one is quite useful. Put to test for a while & then follow it.

This one is for "Lee"

The Art Of Trying:(From Paulo Coelho..Like the flowing River)

Pablo Picasso said:"God is above all, an artist. He invented the giraffe, the elephant, and the ant. He never tried to follow one particular style. He simply kept on doing whatever he felt like doing".

It is the desire to walk that creates the path ahead; however, when we set off on the journey towards our dream, we feel very afraid, as if we had to get everything right first time. But, given that we all live different lives, who decided what 'getting everything right' means? If God made the giraffe, the elephant and the ant, and we are trying to live in His image, why do we have to follow any other model? A model might sometimes help us to avoid repeating the stupid mistakes that others have made, but, more often than not, it becomes a prison that makes us repeat what everyone else has always done.

It means making sure your tie always matches your socks. It means being forced to have the same opinions tomorrow as you had today. Where does that leave the constantly shifting world?

As long as it doesn'y harm anyone, change your opinions now and then and be unashamedly contradictory. You have that right; it doesn't matter what other people think, because they're going to think something anyway.

So relax. Let the universe move around you and discover the joy of surprising yourself. 'God has chosen the foolish things of the world to confound the wise', says St.Paul.

A warrior of light often finds that certain moments repeat themselves. He is often faced by the same problems and situations and, seeing these difficult situations return, he grows depressed, thinking that he is incapable of making any progress in life.
'I've been through all this before,' he says to his heart.
'Yes, you have been through all this before', replies his heart.'But you have never been beyond it'.
Then the warrior realizes that these repeated experiences have but one aim: to teach him what he has not yet learned. He always finds a different solution for each repeated battle, and he does not consider his failures to be mistakes but, rather, as steps along the path to a meeting with himself.