Nifty poised very precariously..

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.Bailout plan :- Bail out package voted in and US markets sold off..
2.Asian markets :-Down 3.5 - 4.0% down at 7.45 A.M..

If no bounce before 9.55 A.M, our markets will gap down & trend down only(Bearish Scenario).

But if there is a bounce off their lows, our markets may gap down and rally from 3650 - 3700 levels(Bullish Scenario)

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After going through many stocks(falling steeply from their multi year log channels) and markets, We are once again at a critical make or break day ahead of us.
Bullish Scenario: Complete the 5th down on Monday and start off a Multi month rally from around 3682.
Bearish Scenario: A big down gap and continue to fall much beyond 3550 towards 3100 or sub 3000.

I repeat again..as all time cycles are down, stay with the trend and at the same time look for any sign of reversals in hourly technicals from 3650-3700 levels as some positive divergences persist. (A word of caution: Initiate long trades only if the positive divergences result in prices going above 5.Hour ema & then 5 day ema...Until then stay with the trend as during such divergences market can keep seeking lower levels).

Fear Index at all time highs and it can get very scary before any reversal can start.
In Feb.2000, Sensex topped at 6157 and fell through to 2565 in Sept.2001 without any meaningful rallies. Remembering the same, lets approach this market.

Wait patiently for the market to show that reversal, if any, and there will be ample time to initiate longs. Until then stay with the trend.

I have reproduced only the bullish scenario chart as the bearish scenario looks quite scary and I need one confirmation of a fall below 3650-3550 to bring in the picture.In either case the present direction is down, the only difference being how far down..?








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Nifty attempting the 4000 ...

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.Bailout plan :- Bail out process continues,A decision likely tonight - a sentiment booster..
2.Asian markets :- Off their intra day low (Taiwan) (at 9.15 A.M)
3.Market which is highly oversold likely to come off the lows from around 3860 to 3900...Trade accordingly..
4. Don't hold longs below 3860.Upward reversal likely above 4000-4050.
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Nifty met with selling pressure at "3985 - 4010" area as mentioned earlier. 4000 - 4050 will continue to be resistance area and 3860 to be support area and break of either of these will lead to sizeable moves.

Nifty's Bounce..Is it for real..?

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.Bailout plan :- Bail out process continues, next meet on Thursday.
2.Asian markets :- Up about 1.5% to 2.0% (at 7.15 A.M)
3.The rally likely to continue with bouts of selling and the likely range is(If gaps up) 3925/3950 to 4025/4060...Trade accordingly..
4.Tomorrow being a holiday, and the bailout meeting too scheduled tomorrow....overnight positions can be risky/rewarding..

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Nifty came off the lows as expected and gave away some of the gains during the last hour. There is no change in daily technical set up...in downtrend only..A close above 4050 is required for reversal and a close above 4125 is required for a break out.Hourly have turned up and the macd is travelling up in the negative area. Expect resistances around 3985 to 4010 area & at 4050. Fall below 3900(Increases as the day progresses), will lead to more weakness.

Nifty downtrending strongly..

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.Bailout plan :- Rejected by the US Congress....Negative..
2.Asian markets :- Fell sharply but off their lows right now(8.35AM)
3.Sgx Nifty had a low of 3673 and trading at 3705..not much help..
4.As we have been falling since 4293 top made on 19.09.08, we might trade off the lows in the morning but might give away the intra gains as the uncertainty still lingers.
5.Investors can start picking up the stocks of their choice at their desired levels in small quantities as this down move seems to be the last leg down in weekly cycle, though it might have many sub waves before completing a bottom.

Read Colin Twigg's latest for a clear perspective.
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Nifty trended down strongly as per the technical readings, aided by Asian market & the uncertain US bailout details.
Till we see a strong positive divergences, periodic counter rallies likely to happen.
You can see from the table the likely resistances.

Nifty's week ahead..

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.Bailout plan :- Vote on the same likely today. Consensus on $700 Billion.
2.Asian markets :- Down now 2% at 8.35 A.M. Sgx Nifty which was up by 95 points(at 7.00AM) is down by 20 points now(8.35AM).
3.Indo-US Nuclear deal passed thru' US House of representatives.
4.With so many conflicting indications, Nifty's price action will depen on the state of Asian market at 9.55AM (More likely down).



Prices are definitely trending lower. Hourly is near or in the oversold but that alone can't change the trend unless reverses above 4045 and continues to make newer highs and closes the day above 4100 - 4150.