World Markets..undercurrents..

A Decade of Deleveraging Ahead..a peek into Colin Twigg's Diary over the weekend is quite informative.

Living Without Limits
By Brian Tracy
The starting point of great success and achievement has always been the same: Dream big dreams. There is nothing more important, and nothing that works faster, than to cast off your own limitations and begin fantasizing about what you can become, have, and do.
As a wise man once said, "You must dream big dreams, for only big dreams have the power to move the minds of men." When you begin to dream big dreams, your levels of self-esteem and self-confidence go up immediately. You feel more powerful about yourself and your ability to deal with what happens to you. The reason so many people accomplish so little is because they never allow themselves to lean back and imagine the kind of life that is possible for them.
A principle that you can use to dream big dreams and live without limits is contained in what physicist Elihu Goldratt calls the "Theory of Constraints."
You must always ask yourself, "What is the critical constraint that holds me back or sets the speed on how fast I double my income?"
So what is holding you back? Is it your level of education or skill? Is it your current occupation or job? Is it your current environment or level of health? Is it the situations that you are in today? What is setting the speed for you to achieve your goal?
Remember, whatever you have learned, you can unlearn. Whatever situation you have gotten yourself into, you can probably get yourself out of. If your real goal is to dream big dreams and to live without limits, you can set this as your standard and compare everything you do against it.
The three keys to living without limits have always been the same. They are clarity, competence, and concentration.
Clarity means that you are absolutely clear about who you are, what you want, and where you're going.You write down your goals and you make plans to accomplish them. You set very careful priorities and you do something every day to move yourself toward your goals. And the more progress you make toward accomplishing things that are important to you, the greater self-confidence and self-belief you have, and the more convinced you become that there are no limits on what you can achieve.
Competence means that you begin to become very, very good in the key areas of your chosen field.You apply the 80/20 rule to everything you do, and you focus on becoming outstanding in the 20 percent of tasks that contribute to 80 percent of your results. You dedicate yourself to continuous learning. You never stop growing. You realize that excellence is a moving target. And you commit yourself to doing something every day that enables you to become better and better at doing the most important things in your field.
Concentration is having the self-discipline to force yourself to concentrate single-mindedly on one thing, the most important thing, and stay with it until it's complete.
The two key words for success have always been focus and concentration.
Focus is knowing exactly what you want to be, have, and do.
Concentration is persevering, without diversion or distraction, in a straight line toward accomplishing the things that can make a real difference in your life.
When you allow yourself to begin to dream big dreams, creatively abandon the activities that are taking up too much of your time, and focus your inward energies on alleviating your main constraints, you start to feel an incredible sense of power and confidence. As you focus on doing what you love to do and becoming excellent in those few areas that can make a real difference in your life, you begin to think in terms of possibilities rather than impossibilities, and you move ever closer toward the realization of your full potential.

Nifty trending down ..strongly ..

Nifty gapped down and continued to fall breaking each levels convincingly.All technical indicators are in downtrend which should result in severe falls ahead.Hourly tech.table has provided confidence to stay with this week's fall. Any reversal, whenever happens, will be noticed first in these table first. Till then stay with the trend.Many stocks have fallen decisively below the multiyear upward channel (Log Chart) and index also fell below it firmly this week. Will post more over the weekend.

Nifty on the verge of completing corrections..

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.Bailout plan approved but details still being worked out.
2.US, Europe rallied well but US market gave off some gains.
3.Asian markets are flat, not following the US markets.
4.A gap up is possible due to the new series, if so, higher level resistance around 4175-4195 and a possible supports between 4130-4145 may be expected.A close above 4225 is required to bring confidence for an upmove.Staying below 4130, weakness will continue.

* * * * * * * * * *

Though Nifty broke the range on the downside, the damage is limited to the 4070 - 4100 mentioned earlier.Besides unwinding on the settlement day results in some extremes. However, Fridays move should offer some clues.At present, the downmove from Monday to be treated as a corrective to the rise of last week though the end of that correction is not yet seen. May be the overseas cues might help to break out of it(4225).The below channel chart should give a early clue tomorrow..!!







The pattern in the above chart wherein Nifty breaks out of the channel and then slides down in a parallel small channel has given advance indications of a breakout especially when it happens after a prolonged downtrend. A close above 4150 will keep the uptrend alive and a close above 4225 will bring back the momentum and may indicate a breakout.

Nifty's Ranging Moves..

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.US Bail-out debate continues keeping everyone guessing.
2.Asian markets are mixed but with an upward bias as of now at 8.15 A.M.
3.End of the settlement to have uncertainity based on the OI positions.
4.Nifty likely to trade between 4200-4225 to 4130. Trade the ranges.If breaks out of either range, trade in that direction.

* * * * * * * * * *
Nifty has established a small trading range of 4118 to 4225/4293.And it managed to stay above the 5-day ema in the last hour. Till the US bail-out plan is not over, the uncertainity will continue to cause ranging movements. Make use of them.

Hourly:- Oversold Hourly RSI gave some initial push up to the index and its travelling upwards. Tomorrows first two hours of trade will give a clue to the directional change, if any, in the hourly macd which is in downtrend below its trigger just above the positive area.




DAILY:- Daily macd is still in the negative zone & below its trigger and trying to move up. A decisive move is likely in the next 2-3 days.Daily stochastics have reached the overbought area.




If Nifty can stabilise above 4210-4225 lavels and manage to close above 4300 on Friday, bull move is possible.Till then Use the "Nifty Intra Chart" Link in this blog and sell at every overbought and buy into every oversold situations.

Nifty's correction continues..

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1. US Senate commitee clears Indo-US Nuclear deal to Senate to Vote....A positive sentiment.
2. Though US Mkts are down, Asia has recovered from their lows...A flat to +ve Cue.
3. As we finished at the bottom yesterday right at the GAP Level, Chances of Gap up is possible. Even if it opens flat, Nifty is expected to move up in the start session.There is still some short covering left in the market.
4.I like to add an alternative scenario that we might still be in the 4th wave up and follow it up with a 5th dn and during this 4th wave you are likely to see extreme moves.
* * * * * * * * * *
Nifty's correction continued into the Gap area. If this correction does not end at the 4070 to 4100 area, more falls may be likely. Trade carefully in the next 2 days of sttlement.Presently we are trending down in the most short term.

Weekly:- Nifty faced resistance at the 5.Week ema (4293) on Monday and hence its trend is still down.Though oscillators are giving advance indications of an upmove, we require a minimum close above 4300 for an uptrend.

Daily:- Nifty closed below 5 ema, macd turned down, stochastics have reached the overbought area, 14 Rsi heading lower. All indicates underlying weakness and uncertainity.

Hourly:- The corrections that started on Monday continues(Refer the Tech.Table below) without any interruptions and the quantum of fall and the subsequent rally/ bounce tomorrow will indicate the resumption of the uptrend or further fall below 4000 again.Though volume has been low on the last two days, tomorrow's price action is important. Nifty did not show any indication of re-entry pointers today also.As the hourly nears the oversold levels, our settlement considerations and US market action will affect our markets.





The Be All, End All
In order to be an effective investor, you have to do what quantum physicists do, consider the market as both random and efficient. There will never be a perfectly efficient market as long as there are investors buying into it. This doesn't, however, mean that the market is so random that no effort on your part can help you profit. You should never remove uncertainty - and, by extension, risk - from your thinking, but you should act as if forces that are generally efficient rule the market. After that, leave the debate up to the economists who are paid to keep it going because sometimes being a ladybug in a giant forest is enough to worry about on its own.(Courtesy: Sunil Saranjame -The Indian Market Monitor)

Nifty pauses.,Correcting the Short term..

As discussed earlier, The hourly "Overbought status" is getting corrected after opening today at the 5.week ema(4292).There are few supports from here..4200(Prev. Major support), 4186(3.day ema), 4172(5.day ema),4145 (5.day avg) and the 4133-4117(The Gap Area).
Retracement for the rise from 3800 to 4293 = 493 points are
23.6 % = 4176 ; 38.0 % = 4105 ; 50.0 % = 4047.
As daily continues to be in uptrend, I will prefer the 23.6 % or a little lower levels for the time being for the re-entry point and also will monitor the hourly movements for re-entry points.

NIFTY-Technical Turn up.

Weekly 14.Rsi has broken out of a falling channel at the bottom area.
12 week Roc has moved into positive area.(Inference:- Fall from 6357 to 3800 is over and an uptrend has commenced - This is NOT a BOUNCE) Weekly 5 High ema for the current week expected at 4425 and the 5 week Low ema at 4100.

Daily Macd has turned up and the stochastics too turned up.(So buy into DIPS)

Hourly oscillators such as stochastics and Rsi have reached the overbought area.(WAIT) Allow for some profit booking to take place and then resume the buying. In stocks, you may still find some attractive buys.