Nifty-into "SELL" Mode..

As per the technical parameters, Nifty has logged into downtrend since Wednesday.The table below amply confirms the weakening Nifty this week.However, Nifty can stage a bounce back either from 4200 or 4160 levels as a correcttion for the 5-wave fall from 4538 to 4200(Or lower on Monday morning),A retracement of 38% to 50 % is a possibility.



14 Day Rsi has broken below the 50 Mark signaling a 3rd wave in progress.



Nifty has broken the daily supporting channel.A gap down will give the final confirmation. A sideways trend will keep the other options alive.



The positive divergence of Thursday led to a small intraday rally but the weekend blues kept the Nifty pressed down to the lowest level, developing further positive divergences. As the larger trend is down(Weekly), the divergences deceptively keep many a hopes alive only to fall continuously.As we have fallen 338 points(4538 to 4200or lower as per Monday morning lows)as the 1st of the 3rd wave, we might start a corrective rally up towards 4300 to 4365 levels. Alternatively, we can also do a totally sideways or a downwards running corrections. Be prepared..

Nifty at its last base line.

Most of the stocks are trading within a range as Nifty has been doing in a "4200 to 4650" range.As the index & stocks near their upper range, excitement takes over and as they fall towards the lower range, a sense of gloom descends.Unlike other markets, our market has withstood the overseas bad news till date. So Buying near the 4250-4200 area with a stop below 4200 is the normal act till Nifty breaks 4200. Though technically a sell has triggered, I would hold my shorts confidently only on a fall/ close below 4200.



There are minor positive divergences in 5-minute charts.Let us monitor the quality of the bounce and if resisted at 4400 levels & inability close above 4400 in the next two days and a subsequent fall below 4200 will confirm the downtrend.





Will the 5.week Low ema (4250) hold the falling Nifty tomorrow..?

Nifty..full of Gaps

Wait patiently to see off this range trading to take a positional view.A small channel from 4204 upwards got broken today. The other upward channel from 3790 will get broken if trades below 4325. Channel resistance on the upside comes at 4440 & 4465. So watch these levels while trading.Zee & Suzlon continued their uptrend after breaking out yesterday. However, GMR Infra, Tisco, Sail have broken down today.



There is 4360 (5.Wk Ema) and 4389 (5.Day Low ema) and the lower range of 4325 as supports.If the market does not rally from here, 5th Leg down may get confirmed.



If the market is able to hold the 4330 to 4365 levels and rally to go above 4440 & 4465, it will be bullish. On the other hand facing resistances at 4440 & 4465 and a susequent break of 4325 will be bearish.

Nifty recovers..

Nifty is consolidating in 4330 to 4530 with a pivot at 4415. Some stocks such as Suzlon, Zee have broken out..Bias is on the upside..Till Nifty closes above 4530, trade the ranges..

Nifty's march towards 200DMA (4950)

Nifty attempted to scale the "A" wave top at 4534 and met with some selling today. Supports are at 4450 & 4360. Some stocks have seen some volume build up today. However, a firm close above the channel resistance is not yet seen. Market keeps shifting its trading range on the higher side. So, buy on any weakness and if closes above 4500, add more longs.



Nifty closed above 5 day high ema and there is a strong support at 4379 (5 day low ema)which is likely to rise to 4430.



Daily 14.Rsi has broken out of the falling trendline & the 12 day roc is back in the positive area which should give confidence to the bulls.Refer the post for the wave structure and the likely target of 4947 as long as 4280(as of today)is held.
Recall that weekly 9.Rsi has brokenout two weeks ago. And now the 14 week Rsi is on the verge of a breakout(Even if the week's close is 4360 !!)This gives me the confidence to stay long for the coming weeks.