Is being wrong really so bad?

This article was taken from INNERWORTH

When trading the markets, it's more common to be wrong than right. There are many ways to be wrong. You can misread a chart pattern, since interpreting a chart is largely a matter of subjective interpretation. You can falsely anticipate what the market will do next, or you can simply commit too much capital to a trading strategy that just may not pan out in the long run. Novice traders, in particular, are infamous for needing to be right. This natural, human tendency is so powerful that novice traders engage in unproductive trading behaviors to avoid admitting that they are wrong. They might hold on to a losing trade, for example, to keep losses on paper. They may procrastinate or put off making a trade in an effort to avoid facing the consequences of a bad trading idea. In many ways, a need to be right can be stifling. Rather than feel free and creative, a trader who consciously or unconsciously needs to be right may hold back at critical moments of trading. When you are inhibited and afraid, you avoid making trades. And unless you make trades in a variety of market conditions, you'll never hone your trading skills and master the markets. To trade like a master, it is vital to stay calm, open, and ready to trade with a winning edge.

Is being wrong really so bad? Many people have trouble admitting they are wrong. It can be difficult to admit we are wrong. It hurts. We tend to place great psychological significance on negative feedback. For example, when we are wrong, it is as if parents or teachers are criticizing us for doing something morally wrong. But this is a false assumption. When we are wrong, or make a mistake, we are not doing anything morally wrong. We are just being human. We all make mistakes, and it is vital to take setbacks in stride. If you can learn to downplay the emotional significance of being wrong, you will feel calmer and can trade more freely and creatively.

Another reason we hate being wrong is that we have an irrational need to be perfect. We often assume that unless we are always right, we will not be successful. This is especially true when trading. Every dollar we lose may often require the effort of making two dollars to make up the difference. It's natural to want to be perfect and never lose. But we don't always need to be right. If you make small practice trades, for example, you can make a trade, learn from your mistakes, and make a new trade. Over time, you'll hone your trading skills. Since risk is managed, you can make mistakes and learn from them. There's nothing to fear.

There's no reason to kick yourself for making a mistake. You're human. You are allowed to be wrong. Don't be afraid to accept your limitations. If you allow yourself to be wrong, you will allow yourself to trade more freely, and over time, you'll hone your trading skills to the point that you will trade the markets skillfully and profitably.

Nifty Retraces the Retracement.

Nifty rises and retraces into a fall, only to retrace that fall and then again retraces that high and falls and in the process has become narrower and narrower.



This week will most likely be the "Make or Break" week for Nifty.



This hourly chart gives you the indecisive nature of our market in the past few days. This indecision should end soon. Those holding shorts can hold them with a stop level at 4401.



On friday the fall was arrested at the 5 day low ema.Now the resistance to any upmove should come near 4447(Day) and 4485(Week)with the Pivot at 4370(Hour).(Go Long above the Pivot & short below)

Nifty-Bearish View..

After posting the view for bullish scenario, I am giving this alternative view which is getting stronger with the world market's turmoil.

Breach of 4367 Or 4343, Exit all Longs and create shorts.Aggressive traders can initiate at the break of 4419 itself.

Nifty's Critical moment.

As per daily parameters, we are up as long as 2-day low of 4343 is not broken. With US market breaking down and Europe also down 3%, Asia may also follow suit. In such a scenario, our market, which is in uptrend, should hold the Pivot level of 4350 where buying has come earlier and rally from there. So watch out for Nifty moves near 4350, 4343 and act accordingly.

Safe trading.

Nifty's Patterns

Look for supports in the region of 4385 to 4415 during this corrective phase. A close below 4433 or 4375 - technically weak & warrant a relook at our earlier view. So STAY LONG with a Stop loss at a close below 4375. Channel suppots around 4400.Past resistances at 4495 -4505.



Hourly close above 4450 will bring in the upward momentum.



If 4500 resistance is not cleared, we may trade in the range of 4500 - 4400 - 4350.

Nifty Breaks Out - II...? ?

Nifty has logged into an uptrend as per Daily parameters.Stay Long. Many stocks have broken out of the Major down Channel, even in log charts. Trade this new channel till excesses happens. Whenever the "4638" is surpassed, it will imply that "b" of this major "B" was irregular and hence the "c" up should be quite substantial going upto the 200 DMA (4950)..The Villain for this uptrend can only be "Crude Oil". So Keep an eye on it all the time.(You will get the live quotes at the link under "Market Place" in this blog.(NetDania)



Supports at 4485 - 4465 - 4435 and Minor resistance at 4534 ("A" wave top) & 4558 (100 DMA)."a" of "B" was from 3790 to 4534 = 744 points; Irregular "b" of "B" was 4534 - 4159 -4638 -4204; "c" of "B" may equal "a" which would be 4204 + 744 = 4948..(200 DMA).This is our present scenario.



All my observations are fully based on price behaviour, supported by the internal strengths in the oscillators and validated by the rise in Volumes. Use the pullbacks to short term averages to go long. Any shorting needs to be carefully executed using hourly & 5-Minute technicals for a very short duration only.(As long as Nifty stays above 4359)

Spirituality in Trading..

Spirituality to me means being in balance within myself when all kinds of emotions arising due to our interactions with the external events , people, etc. I have watched many truly spiritual people working in various fields like Dr.Manmohan Singh, Dr.Abdul Kalam, Sachin Tendulkar, Viswanathan Anand, Magic Johnson, Michel Schumacher, Pele, Dhyanchand, Cristiano Ronaldo, Amitabh Bachhan , Swamy Vivekanand , Narayana Murthy, Azim Premji, to name a very few. They excelled in their fields irrespective of any distractions & criticisms and what mattered most in their life was the job in hand and they kept at it with an amazing balance and carried out their work with such SUPERCONSCIOUSNESS which propelled them into the highest pinnacle of their chosen field with an incredible consistency. They were able to filter out the noise around them, stayed focused and above all they were always disconnected from the excitement and the expectant results as emphasised in Bhagawad Gita.

I have been blessed in knowing a few amazing traders both men and women (My Critic & friends) with such high level of intelligence and perception and one of them trades like Jesse Livermore. Inspite of their excellent grasp of the market, they have failed on certain occasions due to inconsistency in applying themselves and disconnecting from excitement & results, though they are capable of much higher reach.And I am seeing them evolving into fine traders everyday.

That brings me to the spirituality factor or should I call it the CONSCIOUSNESS factor. The more conscious you are in the market, evenly balanced as in yogic teachings, the end results are going to be amazing as well. It is very difficult considering that Arjuna who was always mentored by Lord Krishna couldn't keep his EGO in check and has to be brought down to his senses by the Lord Himself on many occasions.
Even the egotistic Arjuna had that Superconsciousness whenever he took his arrow & aimed, he would just see the object and nothing else and he was the Expert Archer.

So the enemy to an excellent trading is not the efficient market or CNBC or hyped up tipsters & the so called operators but within us. We have to handle our inner turmoil, become evenly balanced by increasing our levels of Consciousness by the KARMA YOGA Method. Just keep doing it till you perfect it..and become one day like the character Bruce Lee in Enter The Dragon answering to his Master's observations that his Skills are at the point of Spiritual insight.
"What is the highest technique?"..."To have no Technique.."
"What are your thoughts on facing your opponent?".."There is no opponent...."
"Then why is that?"..."Because the word "I" does not exist"..
"A good martial artist doesn't become tense but ready.Not thinking yet not dreaming.Ready for whatever may come when there is an opportunity. A martial artist has to take full responsibility for himself and accept the consequences for his own doing"

And you will become one with the flow of things when you learn to FEEL the Markets...You won't fight it..You will just let it happen to you..

Nifty holds on to the gains..

Nifty corrected the negative divergences of the 5-minute timescale and rallied and gave a breakout in the hourly 14.Rsi since the top of 4638. A rally above 4368 will give the daily buy.Many stocks are on the verge of a breakout. Wait for the price signal and stay put in longs.



Trading above the 4360 is required to keep the momentum going and a weekly close above 4375 will complete the bullish picture.



Todays low of 4281 to 4325 would give adequate supports in case of a correction. On the upper side, 4448 & 4500 may offer some resistances. Trade well.

Nifty still in "B" up

The slow nature of this irregular correction to the upmove from 3790 to 4534 is what we have seen in August(a. Fall to 4159; b. a rise to 4638; c.fall to 4203, completing an "abc" called the "B" of the Larger "B" up).

The earlier post clearly stated the uncertainity during this upmove which is typical of "B" waves. Let us remember the same till market states otherwise.It is also possible for this B of "B" to spend more time before rallying up.



Breakout (4500) & Break down (4160) levels are clearly marked as per the daily log chart.

Nifty Reversing..

Weekly 9-Rsi has shown a break out..14-Rsi needs to confirm that. Market's ability to stay above 4370 & scale 4448 will confirm such a possibility.



Nifty's fall was overdone due to the settlement day unwinding, reflected in the positive divergences.There is a minor negative divergence in 5-minute charts.Buy on dips closer to 4300 - 4325 levels..



Data charts should be of help for supports & Resistances..



I must post more over weekend as we are at a very critical juncture..Any clues to support either moves may be pooled in to take a collective wise decision.