Saturday, August 16, 2008
Nifty's 5-Min
Current downtrend(Presently looking like a short term one)is likely to target 4200 odd levels. With a minor positive divergence in 5- Minute charts, it is likely to bounce from lower levels(4380 to 4420)to higher levels (4485 to 4520)and then head lower.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Nifty Downwards..
If we are correcting the 6357 - 3790 - Fall, then we should halt around 4250 preferably or 4160 levels and rally again.Next two weeks will give us those clues.Will remember last month's close at 4313 and this month's low at 4235.
As the 5DMA cuts below the 10DMA(4510), a bounce is likely to 10DMA. Then, the fall to resume towards 50DMA(4250) for rallying support.
As the Channel is broken decisively, sell on rises till we see positive divergences developing in hourly charts.If one has the patience, play only "DIVERGENCES" and make relatively risk free money as the divergences emerge on the charts when excesses happen to the indices or stocks.They display / capture the fear / greed factors very effectively.
As my critic always say, " When you follow the Market using Elliot wave or Technical analysis, you come across two or three possibilities. But take that one which came instantly and easily to you and most often that is the correct one. Don't try too hard". So, Easy does it..
As the 5DMA cuts below the 10DMA(4510), a bounce is likely to 10DMA. Then, the fall to resume towards 50DMA(4250) for rallying support.
As the Channel is broken decisively, sell on rises till we see positive divergences developing in hourly charts.If one has the patience, play only "DIVERGENCES" and make relatively risk free money as the divergences emerge on the charts when excesses happen to the indices or stocks.They display / capture the fear / greed factors very effectively.
As my critic always say, " When you follow the Market using Elliot wave or Technical analysis, you come across two or three possibilities. But take that one which came instantly and easily to you and most often that is the correct one. Don't try too hard". So, Easy does it..
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Nifty to Gap Dn...
Technically the set up is ready for a journey down.Enjoy the ride. It is good for the market and for all our wealth..I saw a chart on "Sunil's Site" today and you will agree with me if you see the same. How a one way journey can get aborted and how many gets seriously hurt. Look at China's index.. from 1500 odd went up to 6000 plus in a jiffy and now back to 2400 and still not finding strength.The real buying should be done when we see positive divergences in oscillators when the prices keep getting lower.Till then lets have patience and protect our capital. Trade if you can..( I do miss Manoj's blog, and Lee's comes once a week only...Busy people!And thank God for Sunil's inputs..)
Two Views on Nifty
I am reproducing here the different views expressed by my critics.Their contention is that only hourly divergences are getting corrected.Weekly & Daily trend is intact.
Fall below 4464 will lead to more weakness & slide to 4160 - 4200.
Fall below 4464 will lead to more weakness & slide to 4160 - 4200.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Trader's Mind..
I have known many traders (Businessmen who trade in goods) for years and it dawned on me very recently the stark difference between them and the Stock market traders.
Business traders do not talk about their daily/monthly earnings, they don't do any adventurous things, they just do the same simple things that fetched them money day in & day out. Their consistency and steadfastness is amazing. I grew up in one such family and I have seen their stability to wait through their lean period and quietly take advantage of the busy season. Their preparedness is unparalleled.In stock markets, traders have a compulsive need to talk about their daily adventures, they need to discover or invent newer methods to figure out the market/ stock movements. Of course, there are traders in stock markets who are very consistent (One trader in Bombay traded only in "ACC" all his life) but they are few.I have come across so many good blogs with such simple but very accurate analysis of the markets with enough directions for anyone willing to apply themselves in the market to make money.Just reading the write ups alone will not fetch the money. You have to develop the conviction to believe in them for which one needs to do his own homework of following up on all that is read and all that happened subsequently. Like "Osho" said, "don't believe it as truth just because I said so. Believe it only when you feel that it is the truth".When my friend/Critic was struggling with the markets, he sat through days and nights and analysed a simple method of trading with Macd(Which has already been analysed and implemented by many)and convinced himself that an application of macd is possible to make consistent money in the market and only then did he venture out to trade and never wavered from that simple approach. Later on he studied wave principle when he was convalesing and applied the simple fibonacci retracements to his trading with amazing results.I want to highlight here his determination, not accepting anything at face value and staying focused on a job(Go deeper and not wider).I am sure everyone can find his method that is suitable for his temperament and needs.
Business traders do not talk about their daily/monthly earnings, they don't do any adventurous things, they just do the same simple things that fetched them money day in & day out. Their consistency and steadfastness is amazing. I grew up in one such family and I have seen their stability to wait through their lean period and quietly take advantage of the busy season. Their preparedness is unparalleled.In stock markets, traders have a compulsive need to talk about their daily adventures, they need to discover or invent newer methods to figure out the market/ stock movements. Of course, there are traders in stock markets who are very consistent (One trader in Bombay traded only in "ACC" all his life) but they are few.I have come across so many good blogs with such simple but very accurate analysis of the markets with enough directions for anyone willing to apply themselves in the market to make money.Just reading the write ups alone will not fetch the money. You have to develop the conviction to believe in them for which one needs to do his own homework of following up on all that is read and all that happened subsequently. Like "Osho" said, "don't believe it as truth just because I said so. Believe it only when you feel that it is the truth".When my friend/Critic was struggling with the markets, he sat through days and nights and analysed a simple method of trading with Macd(Which has already been analysed and implemented by many)and convinced himself that an application of macd is possible to make consistent money in the market and only then did he venture out to trade and never wavered from that simple approach. Later on he studied wave principle when he was convalesing and applied the simple fibonacci retracements to his trading with amazing results.I want to highlight here his determination, not accepting anything at face value and staying focused on a job(Go deeper and not wider).I am sure everyone can find his method that is suitable for his temperament and needs.
NIFTY HALTS !
Overextended Nifty halts. Channel broken in F&O. Many individual weak stocks has broken the channel(See Sunil's blog)which will lead the index downwards(Rats leaving the sinking ship first!).Our cry for a halt finally came after changing the bear into a bull..Sell at higher levels (4560 to 4590)..Minor supports will be at 4505 , 4484. A daily close below 4540 can lead to 4464. Break of 4464 will set up a bigger fall.
Rise in Volume indicates "Exit at higher levels".
NIFTY v/s Stocks
After studying some stocks, I have posted this above chart. You may view those charts in my other blog.
NIFTY IN "B"
In its larger "B" up, Nifty's intra corrections are difficult to decipher.Negative divergences continue but weakness is not visible in prices. Momentum indicating 5day high ema is at 4567 & hourly high ema at 4611 & are rising by day & hour.If the markets stalls near 4660-4680 levels, it can weaken . So wait till it trades below high emas. Till then trade the levels - Resistance 4660 - 4680 & Supports 4590-4580. As the market paused at 50DMA & rallied, it has paused at 100 DMA and now rallying. These are only for very short term traders but the medium trend is very much intact & up. All the best.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Incredibly Consistent Chart
The Consistency in these charts are based on the "Money flow" in to these markets. It implies that we should be breaking out of the 4467 - 4616 range (Aided by world markets) and head higher towards 4780 for the month. Corrections so far have been brief and market has managed to stay above the 5DMA since the 3790 bottom. There is a possibility of our markets taking a breather at 4616 levels, consolidate and then head higher. This is what the market says thus far..
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