Saturday, August 9, 2008
Shooting stars have been countered by a "Hammer" by the bulls on Friday.Nifty is moving up with periodic corrections within the channel since 3790 bottom. A couple of possibilities are shown in the charts. Volume has been subdued since "4616".The short term weakness was arrested on Fri with Nifty taking a support at 5 week high ema(4470).Hourly candle charts show periodic corrections(Timewise) and short rallies.Move above 4580 will target 4620 to 4635.Move above 4620-4635 will target 4700.Reaching either of this targets, another round of consolidation will be on.With every passing day, the support levels have been moving up and the weekly technicals have been improving.We have a 4-day trading next week. Will post more during the weekend.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Two shooting stars !! No good..Let us see whether our market holds above 4440(Conservative). For aggressive traders , break of 4494 will be enough to go short..Hourly RSI has broken down..Now to follow it up with price behaviour tomorrow. Last week's close 4413.Will the weekly throw up a shooting star? Season of shooting stars..Like we had a season of "Island reversals". In a bull market, market can keep climbing higher even with the oscillators in overbought area for longer period. But in a bear market, that too with negative divergences, it doesn't reward you in such a set up. Allow the bears & bulls to fight it out...allow the market to find its depth..More upsides will only make life miscerable for bulls...I guess they never learn their lessons..And the bears have it good..that too in such quick fashion...To end it..Market's last hope for short term upside is holding above 4440 & preferably reversing from 4475..Or else we are looking for 4160 - 4200 levels as posted yesterday..Good Luck to all..
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Is it a halt ? Evidences in short term indicates fatigue (Negative divergences). May not fall like a water fall..but selling can be expected at higher levels..
1)Daily stochastics has turned down. Daily ist target of 100 DMA (4615) reached.
2)Hourly Roc, Macd, Rsi are showing negative divergences and trading below hourly high/low ema
These negative divergences has not yet taken effect in prices.
And market has not given a decisive sell in the Daily. So Nifty can take immediate supports at about 4494 or 4475 and bounce intraday in search of continued buyers and may meet resistances at higher levels. Only a close below 4450 will trigger a sell in daily.The trading range can be 4475 to 4590.Keep booking profits.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
We are nearing overbought area for the short term. Book part profits above 4600 levels.
OR Ride this upmove by keep monitoring the 5 Day High Ema's (Currently at 4433, may move upto 4468 for 06.08.08).Uptrend Intact.Market can stay in overbought levels till individual stocks catch up with the index. NO SELL SIGNAL YET. STAY LONG
Monday, August 4, 2008
As per Daily charts, the uptrend is intact. Any fall towards 4335 should be used to buy.
Hourly charts show some hesitation.Hourly candles show selling above 4400 mark.Only a hourly close above 4400 will bring in the momentum. So for very short term, we will watch the channel bottom which is approximately 4320 to 4340(This level increases as the day progresses). Only a close below 4325 will warrant caution.