Nifty in August..

Momentum has come into Nifty especially on a Friday will facilitate a smooth run up to higher levels. Just play along.

Any kind of feedback contrary or otherwise is appreciated highly.

Nifty's High & Low Ema's for Trading.

As you can see from the Table above, Nifty's ema of "High", "Low", & "Close", have given good entry, exit, Resistance, support points. Same may be applied to Weekly for Investment purposes.

Nifty's struggle..contd..

After viewing the world markets, the scenario emerges as two possibilities..

PREFERRED:-
1)Market corrects towards 4250 to 4260 as wave "2.c" or "c of B" and move up latter part of the day or from Monday.

ALTERNATIVE:-
2)Market does a Zigzag with 4534 to 4159 as "a of B", 4159 to 4342(or higher) as "b of B" and goes down below 4159 towards 4100 levels(61.8%) as "C of B" and then starts its "C"(or 3rd) up from there on.

Nifty's Struggle in the Gap !

Nifty's struggle goes on in the gap area of 4260 to 4370..We see a 5 minor waves up from 4159 to 4342 and it is correcting that upmove. May spend the Friday between 4285/4260 to 4342. If closes above 4342, consider the 3rd wave has started.Nifty has closed above 5 DMA (4318).Macd(12,26 ema) has entered positive territory.Daily stochastic has turned up. The set up is ready for the next move up. As long as it does not fall much below 4260, the uptrend is safe for the short term.Good Luck to all in the August series.

Nifty's settlement..

During the "Badla" days of BSE, we could make out the longs & shorts clearly & act accordingly. Now that information is not available. Going by the price behaviour, shorts have rushed in to square their position leading upto good rallies. Again one should read the number of calls & puts writing series to decipher the level the market likely to settle today. Last week's close of 4313 may act as a pivot today.5-Monthly high & low EMA's are 4342 & 4257.So a definite close above 4257 is on the cards and an attempt at 4342 (& 4390-50 DMA) are also possible.Close above 4345 will be more positive for the short term.My bet is a range of 4290 to 4390 for the day !!

Nifty in Channels

Nifty on the settlement day generally closes close to the trend of that month which is up for this month and trading close to the high of this month.Nifty which outran itself in the 1st wave up(3790 to 4540), is spending time filling the gaps (4260 to 4370). Once it clears 4378, it should move up smoothly. Hourly technicals favour the same. Tomorrow's move should confirm the daily turning up. Channels have helped to trade the Nifty. Today it broke the downward channel at 11.30 AM at 4270 & given a buy.Since it is the 3rd(or "C") wave, trade up till we see price behaving differently.

Nifty near a critical support..

Will the Nifty stop at 4100 ? Tomorrow's price action will confirm..If trades flat to marginally high in the morning and then fall towards 4100 area..correction may end by evening or on settlement day(31.07.08). Only concern for this scenario is the gaps that are left behind by these indices so generously for the bears.I will welcome any upmove in world indices as that would provide shorting opportunity. Daily stochastics have been falling since 3 days & not yet reached the bottom. Last month close is 4040. Three weeks of buying below 4040 in July made the 750 points rally to 4540 possible. So 4040- to be protected...

Nifty to fall

Nifty's steep upmove from 3790 to 4590 is getting corrected. Following a fall to 4297, it is trading sideways now. Fall below 4297 will accelerate the fall. Alternatively a rise to either 4374 or 4405 will attract selling. Hourly MACD is poised to move into negative zone. Crude showing signs of bottoming and poised for an upmove / bounce. More downsides in store.Metal stocks have shown weakness first.(Stop Loss be at 4445 for now)

Nifty-Preferred view..

After getting inputs from my critics and friends, I consider my preferred wave count that we have finished our larger "A" down from 6257 to 3790 and we are on the "B" up now."B" waves are generally complex and various possibilities occur in them. Hence, during this period , short term trading is considered based on Technical analysis only.One move is over from 3790 to 4540. A correction to this upmove is on.

Nifty in 5th Wave down?

Sensex has done an downward Island reversal but Nifty has managed to close the gap.Will sensex close the gap on Monday or are we going for new low(ONE LAST).I read somewhere that positive returns by being bearish when trading below 200DMA and if market closes positive for 5 or more days, has higher highs for 5 or more days and the RSI reading is above 80 to 90.We have fulfilled all the above criteria.So i am being bearish. Besides the above sensex chart clearly shows we are headed down in a 5 th wave (Yoda ., would you read this chart & see anything different than the one labelled.Though I have labelled only "a" of 4th, and we may be in "b" of 4th & to make another high above 4540 to complete the 4th "C" before starting the powerful 5th down, there is the other possibility that 4th"b" was an irregular bottom & what we witnessed from 16.07.08 to 24.07.08 was the 4th"c" and we are already in 5th Down).Some of the stocks show a typical 4th wave up and may start their 5th down either on Monday or Tuesday. Nifty will confirm the same if trades below 4297 on Monday.