Friday, July 25, 2008
Nifty was resisted at 4540 gap yesterday and was sold off with volume. A dreaded Gap down is staring at Nifty today. As long as it does not open gap down below 4371, corrections from here to 4345, 4265 or even 4165 is alright. Rightnow, the daily stochastics has turned down & hourly are about to fall below 70. So a short term trend has started. Let us watch the Nifty action at around 4200 to 4250 area.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
The Volume which was absent till Tuesday in this uptrend came in today with a vengence. Sentiment which is very vital for this upmove (Like enthusiasm in life)is back.Retracement for the last fall from 5255 to 3790 works out to 4695 (61.82%).We have a gap at 4541 to 4570.And the last minor 5th wave which finished as an ending diagonal(EW) or falling wedges (TA) started from 4678 to 3790. Ending diagonals are retraced fast. We have very clear ending diagonals in many stocks.Those are the immediate targets.Retracement for the Major wave down from 6357 to 3790 works out to 4765 (38%), 5074(50%) and 5376(61.82%).Keep these options open as we are moving up with volumes, after showing positive divergences in weekly, Daily and hence the technical set up of the market is likely to change with these price behaviours.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Nifty has shown enough strength thus far.Any corrections should be an entry / reentry point till we see weakness. After a study of so many stocks, it is clear weekly corrections are over and a bigger rally is underway. Any pull back towards averages such as 25, 10, 5 DMA should be used to buy into only.I will keep this chart as a map and ride it up till a different scenario emerges.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Nifty halted near the 25 DMA for 2 hours before moving up higher.Prior to the major event, the short term looks overbought. With world markets cues, we may have range trading.(Between 4215, 4185 to 4130 , 4100/4080). No sell signal yet but we'll look out for them tomorrow.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Hourly RSI has entered the overbought area. Market has rallied 320 points. Expect some selling from here. 10 DMA at 4014 & 5 DMA at 3950 may act as supports.On the higher side 4118 - 4135 area where 25 DMA will act as resistance. If Asia opens firm , you may get your selling opportunity. If I take the move from 3790 to 4110 or higher on Monday as an "abc" bounce forming "A" up., then the "B" with its "abc" down will be trickier. So trade lightly in this "B" wave and allow it to give us some clarity on the subsequent moves.
I must thank Sunil for suggesting an easy way to upload charts.And my sincere gratitude to both Sunil and Manoj for posting my blogs on their sites.I like to add here I have not received any formal training in either Elliott's or Technical analysis but have read extensively on them and put them to test and believe in that much only which works and the rest are given a goby.In the ultimate analysis, all these methods should bring in clarity and strategies to initiate profitable trades and investments.